The road from Baghdad is radioactive

Sunday, July 13, 2003 - by Peter Golden

Back in the 1960s, while lounging around the library one day, a rather thick book came into my hands with the unlikely title of "Nuclear Weapons and Foreign Policy." Authored by none other than Henry Kissinger, the volume laid out in cold numbers the potential outcome of a nuclear strike against the US.

In a narrative spookily similar to algebra problems with which I had recently struggled in high school, Kissinger "modeled" various scenarios in which X cities absorbed Y megatons of nuclear explosives resulting in Z injuries and loss of life. What struck me then and lingers in my memory to this day was the matter-of-fact way in which Kissinger juggled kill figures and survival ratios. One number still stuck in my memory is the 40 million, civilian causalities Kissinger hypothesized the US could absorb while still maintaining itself as a going concern.

Grotesque memories aside, consider a small incident I experienced over the Fourth of July weekend. Through the generous hospitality of cousins, my wife and I passed a delightful holiday weekend by a New Hampshire lake. Delightful, that is, until upon retiring on Saturday night we discovered our room had been mobbed by "no-see-ums," the miniscule black flies whose bothersome bite has been the bane of generations of New Englanders.

We were not, however, "roughing it." Our quarters were a comfortable guesthouse, built to exacting standards. The "no-see-ums," not respecting civility or good construction, had penetrated screened windows and doors and swarmed our lovely room by the thousands.

The unwelcome invaders and a long, disconcerting article on the socio-religious history of a mid-eastern nation that I finished reading earlier that day summoned up the memory of that almost forgotten book.

What are the lessons we can gain from Kissinger's horrifying, if clear-eyed, speculations on the impacts of a nuclear war and the ability of a small fly to defeat the conventions of modern construction? An article I had just finished added to my speculations, for it dealt, among other things, with the potential of Muslims of a particular persuasion to gain access to nuclear weapons. Needless to say, the no-see-ums were only part of my discomfort.

The incontrovertible fact is that Pakistan, Iran, and North Korea all possessed nuclear capabilities in one form or another, which begins to explain why US forces in Iraq include a contingent of Korean language specialists. We may never find a single weapon of mass destruction or production facility along the road to Baghdad, but the road from there to Tehran, to Karachi and beyond is littered with them.

As for the no-see-ums, their analogy in the environment of global terror lies in 72 million cargo containers currently in motion around the world. On ships, trains, planes and trucks they are as omni-present as the little bugs on the wall of our cottage and can penetrate the "screen" of American security with almost as much impunity. When packed with a nuclear bite . . . Well, I think you're beginning to understand my anxiety, and we haven't even touched on the six-dozen "suitcase" nuclear weapons the Russians are said to have somehow misplaced.

Summertime conspiracy theories notwithstanding, as a people we must begin to understand that it is not just the road to Baghdad that we must trace with infinite care, but also the road from it.

Thus the invasion of Iraq, as shabbily contrived as it may have in part appeared, makes sense regardless of bogus uranium stories or the overtly hawkish musings of the preemptive posse in the White House and the Pentagon. And that too is part of what kept me awake that night.

I must tell you that my friendships in the Muslim community are not wide, but among them are people of wisdom, intelligence and spirituality that I can only admire and aspire to. I would also tell you that I believe in the fundamental value of diplomacy, politics and economics as means to peace and understanding.

But I must also observe that I believe us to be a nation at risk. Our failings and weaknesses all noted, the potential for real disaster is real and to not do everything in our power to protect our people, our welfare and our way of life is the sheerest folly. Make no mistake about it; the divide between religious absolutism and a non-sectarian society will only be bridged by moderation, pluralism and democracy—supported by a staunch defense.

On a warm summer's night in New Hampshire I was able to defeat an invading force with a can of bug spray. In the war against terror, however, it's going to take considerably more than insecticide to win the day.

Peter Golden thinks about the unthinkable in Natick, Massachusetts.

 
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